Welcome to the early voting blog!
For those who have been with me for previous versions, welcome back!
For those of you who have not, you are in for a treat if you care about actual data and not so much about polls. Here is what I did in 2024 and 2022.
I am trying to make this better every cycle, and ChatGPT has been a big help in refining my model this year. There will be something in here for everyone, whether you are interested in the marquee race for governor or congressional races or legislative contests.
I am not ashamed of seeking help along the way, so if you have information to impart or advice to give or corrections to make, email me at ralston@thenvindy.com.
There is not much to go on yet – not many ballots are in. But I want to frame the discussion and show you some historical baselines before the deluge of mail ballots begins, perhaps as early as later this week.
Let me tell you what this is and what it isn't:
This blog is about who is voting, not whom they are voting for. But partisan turnout patterns can tell us plenty about the electorate taking shape.
I'll start with several assumptions, including that roughly 90 percent of Democrats and Republicans will support their respective parties' candidates. I'll also show what happens when those assumptions change.
One of the numbers I'll be watching most closely is the Republican turnout advantage. I'll initially model scenarios ranging from R+1 to R+5 percentage points, adjusting as the actual returns come in.
And I'll keep asking the question that matters more with each passing day: Given who has already voted, what would have to happen among everyone who hasn't?
In the past, with huge Clark County firewalls for the Dems — the number of votes they had banked — I was even able to declare outcomes before Election Day. Those days are gone because of diminished Dem registration advantages in Clark County, which houses Las Vegas and has nearly 73 percent of active voters.
But I can still discern trends, as I did in 2024 with GOP turnout. My ultimate prediction in my Indy column — that Kamala Harris would eke out a victory — turned out to be wrong, although I correctly called the other five federal races.
But this blog is not about predictions; it is about raw data. And I will give you a lot of it. Think of it as a buffet: You can choose what you want to feast on.
Before the ballots start pouring in, let's establish four historical benchmarks.
First, how Nevadans vote has changed dramatically. Mail ballots now account for roughly half the vote — every voter has been mailed a ballot since COVID — and most ballots are cast before Election Day.
Second, Republican turnout has generally exceeded Democratic turnout in recent midterms. How large that gap becomes this year will be one of the numbers I watch most closely.
Third, geography matters. Clark County contains nearly three-quarters of Nevada's active voters, but turnout there has historically lagged Washoe and far behind rural Nevada. The relative turnout in those three areas can substantially change the composition of the statewide electorate.
Fourth, voters who aren't registered with either major party will be an enormous part of this election. We know how many of them vote. We don't know whom they support. That's where the assumptions — and the math — become particularly interesting.
So now we are ready for the votes to start coming in.
Here is the electorate we start with, as of Oct. 1 from the SOS:
Only about 1,500 ballots have been cast so far. Michael McDonald, the professor not the chairman of the NV GOP — is a great source of information. I expect the mail ballot number to start steadily increasing very soon.
What I'll be watching every day
There are several numbers I care about more than the raw statewide D-versus-R ballot count.
Turnout. What percentage of registered Democrats have voted? Republicans? Non major-party voters?
The turnout gap. If Republicans are turning out at 4 percentage points more than Democrats, that means something very different from an R+8 turnout advantage — regardless of the raw ballot margin.
Geography. How much of the vote is coming from Clark? Washoe? The rurals? Are those places producing the electorate we would normally expect?
For a baseline, just under 73 percent of active voters reside in Clark County, just under 16 percent are in Washoe and just under 12 percent are in rural Nevada. The higher rural turnout is relative to Clark and Washoe, the more those quarter-million voters can affect the composition of the statewide electorate. If it's smaller than expected …
What has to happen?
I'll also keep a running set of turnout scenarios, from R+5 to Even. Those numbers refer to the difference between Republican and Democratic turnout rates — not the partisan margin in ballots or votes.
As more ballots come in, I'll calculate what would have to happen among the remaining electorate under different assumptions about partisan loyalty and non-major-party voters. At first, those scenarios will be mostly hypothetical. But as hundreds of thousands of Nevadans vote, the assumptions will matter less and the composition of the actual electorate will matter more. That's when this gets really interesting.
A special CD2 watch
I'm also going to spend more time on the 2nd Congressional District this year because it may be more competitive than it has been in a long time. I'll particularly focus on its two very different components: Washoe and rural Nevada. Based on the registration snapshot we've been working with, approximately 62 percent of CD2's registered voters are in the Washoe portion and 38 percent are in the rural portion.
The interesting mathematical question is straightforward.
If a Democratic candidate receives X percent in the rural portion, what percentage would that candidate need in the Washoe portion to reach 50 percent or thereabouts (there is a third-party candidate) districtwide?
And vice versa.
Again, that's not a prediction. It's math. As I will show you, the district is so Republican and rural Nevada usually votes so red that a Dem might need to get to 60 percent in Washoe (quite unlikely but not impossible) to win under normal conditions.
Get ready for updates, and I like to say, as Bette did (but for weeks and, I hope, not months!):
It was not just lip service earlier: If you have questions, suggestions, criticisms, corrections (I will make mistakes!) or, heaven forfend, kudos, please email me.
Onward!
