By Meteorologists Dakota Smith, Chris Dolce, Briana Waxman
(CNN) — Winter will make its first cameo in the eastern United States later this week as a storm ushers in the coldest temperatures in six months for tens of millions of people and the first snow for some.
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The storm will become a nor’easter when it reaches the Northeast coast, shaking up a period of relative tranquility in the region and becoming the first notable storm since September’s early season nor’easter.
Nearly 200 million people east of the Mississippi will experience their coldest temperatures since spring as a tease of winter plunges south from Canada in the storm’s wake.
The storm will develop across the Midwest Wednesday and slowly strengthen as it pushes east. With it, blustery and sloppy conditions are expected from the Midwest to the Mid-Atlantic and into coastal parts of the Northeast later in the week.
High elevations in the Interior Northeast are likely to see their first snowfall of fall, and the lake-effect snow machine will also power on for the first time since spring in the Great Lakes.
The storm’s expected path is starting to take shape, but forecast models disagree slightly on how much snow and rain will impact the Northeast and New England.
Wet snow is possible in the mountains of the Interior Northeast southward through the central and southern Appalachians, especially Thursday night and Friday.
Higher elevations of northern New England and upstate New York could pick up 2 or more inches of snow, which is most likely to stick overnight when temperatures are lowest. Some flakes could reach lower elevations of the Interior Northeast and mix in with the rain, but little accumulation is expected there.
Along the Interstate 95 corridor from Philadelphia to Boston, the storm will primarily bring a classic autumn cold rain, which is expected to fall over a long enough stretch of time to limit the risk of flooding. However, coastal flooding is a separate concern as gusty winds push water toward shore.
What’s still in question is just how much rain and snow will fall, and where exactly. Small shifts in the storm’s track – especially how close it tracks along the coast once it gets there – could mean big differences in impacts.
Any of the expected tracks could generate gusty winds and some minor to moderate coastal flooding in the Northeast, but the flooding will not be as severe or widespread as it was during September’s nor’easter.
What we can say for sure is that this storm will bring a dose of soggy weather from the Midwest to parts of the Northeast as well as a blast of cold air from the far eastern Plains to the Atlantic coast.
Behind the storm, a brief cold plunge is set in stone for anyone east of the Mississippi River. Many areas will see their coldest weather since last spring as temperatures drop 5 to 15 degrees Fahrenheit below average.
Sub-freezing temperatures are expected in parts of the Deep South overnight Friday and Saturday.
For some in the South, the first freeze may arrive right on schedule as many areas, including Atlanta and Birmingham, Alabama, typically experience it during the first half of November.
Parts of central Florida, like Orlando, could dip into the 40s for the first time since March.
The cold will firmly settle in over the Midwest, from Minnesota to Ohio, preventing temperatures from climbing out of the 40s starting on Thursday and lasting through the weekend.
This cold snap won’t have staying power.
Above-average temperatures are expected to return next week in much of the nation’s eastern half. The mild temperatures could be preview of what’s to come in a winter dominated by Super El Niño.
The-CNN-Wire
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CNN meteorologists Taylor Ward and Tyler Ory contributed to this report.
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